PLANNING TOOLS & GIS PRESENTATION

Mr. Ian Hamilton

Senior Planning Advisor

Introduction

This presentation is about the general approach that is used to prepare the Spatial Plan, and also a number of selected planning tools. The approach and tools that we used have been determined largely by the resources (time and manpower) that are available. Task Force 4 has accomplished the Spatial Plan so far by carrying out a number of co-ordinating and training meetings and also individual training. This has been a part time activity in which the representatives of Task Force 4 are from government departments, academic institutions and the private sector. The Plan has been prepared with minimum data because time was limited, and done in simplicity so that all members from various backgrounds can be involved.

Overall Approach

shows the flowchart of activities for the preparation of the Spatial Plan. We start with 2005 trend framework based on the 1980-1991 population growth. This is a population driven model. We took the population growth between 1980 and 1991 in each district and projected it forward at the same rate to the year 2005. This is not a prediction but it is an exercise of ‘what if? What if the trend from 1980 to 1991 continues to the year 2005? What are we left with in terms of population?

There were 1.7 million people in Sabah in 1991 and the projection of population based on the growth rate between 1980 and 1991 would be 3.9 million by the year 2005, an increase of 2.1 million. The annual growth rate is 5.5 %. We think that 50% of that would be of a natural growth and the rest due to migration.

There is also a need to generate goals and objectives for deciding what we really want. From the goals and objectives, we generate alternative ways the future may look based on different development approaches. The alternatives are Agro-industry, Tourism and Manufacturing. We considered each alternative individually and the population was reassigned to each alternative based on whether they are urban or rural and in which districts the activities would be concentrated. Evaluation was undertaken to find the best of these approaches. The tool used was GAM (Goals Achievement Matrix). This is then used as a base for adding the best bits of all other strategies to produce a preferred strategy which will score highest in the GAM.

Essentially, the ICZM Spatial Plan is designed in a logical sequential format to include the following items:

• These are the resources (e.g. land, marine, productive, built) we have at our disposal;
• This is currently what we are doing with these resources;
• This is what we consider would be a better use of these scarce resources; and
• This is how we believe we can actually start to put these ideas into practice.

But to be pro-active, we must understand linkages and dynamics of relationships between Settlements, Natural Resources and Infrastructure.

Figure 1: Flow Chart of Activities

shows the linkages between settlement planning, natural resources and infrastructure. The questions shown in Figure 2 are the questions being considered for in preparing the plan. The rapid population growth in urban areas could be due to high centrality, political centre, employment opportunities, improved accessibility and migration. On the other hand, the decline of rural population growth could be due to rural under employment, decline in mining/forestry activities and decline in agricultural productivity. Some of the reasons why rural population might be increasing are the growth of agro-industry and eco-tourism.

If these growth trends are allowed to continue, it might be due to the availability of space to expand, the growth of dynamic industries creating employment, strategic location, potential to increase agricultural production, that increased urbanisation causes efficient services and the availability of exploitable resources. However, in terms of natural resources, the growth trends might be exerting pressure on good agricultural land or forests/hillsides near towns, destruction of fish habitats, conflicts between sea users (oil exploration and fishing activities), groundwater pollution, expensive infrastructure to service fast growing centres, over-reliance on one centre and adverse cultural influences.

There is a need to assess which settlements should be encouraged to grow and where we should try to restrict or redirect growth. There is also a need to assess which urban facilities or services are needed, for example tertiary education, piped water and public housing. In the rural area, we need to assess which rural facilities or services are needed, for example, reservoirs, irrigation, solid waste and recreation; and assess the need for new transport links between settlements and to the other districts, for example national roads.

Figure 2: Linkages Between Settlement Planning, Natural Resources And Infrastructure

Planning Tools

There are many techniques used as planning tools, for example, settlement hierarchy analysis looking at aspects of centrality through Central Place theory, Growth Poles and Scalogram, Accessibility Analysis. In this paper, four planning tools presented namely SWOT, Sustainability analysis, Criteria and GAM.

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats)

The SWOT matrix is presented in Table 2 . Table 3 presents an example of the usage of SWOT matrix. The example is related to the tourism industry in a theoretical place. The strengths of this particular place are great scenery, beaches and cultural centres. The weakness is limited infrastructure. The opportunity in this place is to declare the province a tourist zone. The threats are land degradation, depletion of coral and no preservation of historical sites. The SO strategies could be to produce a tourism plan to market the province to developers and visitors, and to ease the planning process for approved projects. The WO strategies could be to provide new infrastructure to attract tourists and serve local people, and also introduce replanting programs. For the ST strategies, the mining companies could involve to reinstate spoils heaps and beautify man-made lakes, give alternative leisure jobs for fishermen, and encourage use and conversion of historic buildings to attract tourists. The WT strategies could be to prevent further mining/logging in selected areas and to promote tourism away from erosion prone areas.

Table 2: SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) Matrix

Table 3: Tourism using SWOT

Sustainability of Land Use

The land use and suitability classes of land need to be combined . Figure 3 shows the land suitability map. Each area of land has been categorised as suitable for various purposes. Each category is broadly explained, as details could not be dealt with at this level.

Figure 4 shows the sustainability of land use map. These two maps could be compared and one could conclude that there are areas that are overused according to their suitability, land that has development opportunity and also land with sustainable land use. A very broad idea can be derived from the comparison for the sustainability of land use for the future.

Figure 3: Land Suitability Map

Sample Land Suitability Map based on Land Management Unit Map.

SUITABILITY CATEGORIES

Sr - Suitable for irrigated rice or freshwater fish-ponds

S cc - Suitable for cultivated annual crops

S tv - Suitable for perennial tree and vine crops

S p - Suitable for pastures

Figure 4: Sustainability of Land Use Map

Criteria

Planning standard is a very useful technique. It is useful to have some ideas about the use of facilities by people. However, in Sabah, standards are not used widely. The example below shows typical standards or guidelines used in the Philippines. They are generalised but give guidance about what should be aimed for.

Typical Standards or Guidelines to be aimed for: Philippines

Roads: Agricultural Areas : 1.5 km per 100 hectares arable land

Urban Areas 2.4 km per 1000 urban population

Average 1.0 km per 100 hectares

Hospitals: 1 bed per 1000 population

Within 35 kms/30 minutes of every residence

Solid Waste: Daily range : 0.23 to 0.60 kg per capita

On the basis of 0.40 kg/person/day with a density of 500 kg/per m ³ in the landfill and 20% cover, one hectare one metre high will provide for some 30,000 persons.

Landfill Area required (ha.):

= Population Served = No. of hectares of landfill one metre deep per annum

30,000

Parks: Municipal park: 500m² per 1000 population

Athletics Field: 0.5 ha per 1000 population

Picnic Areas: 1.6 ha per 1000 population

Indoor Sports: 0.4 ha per 1000 population

Industry: Light 0.8 ha per 1000 population

Medium 2.5 ha per 1000 population

Heavy 4.0 ha per 1000 population

Water: Residential Demand 75 litres/capita/day

Commercial 1 – 1.3 m ³/connection/day

Industry 85 – 260 m ³/hectare/day

Table 4 shows the number of hospital beds in Sabah for 1991 and the projected trend for 2005. By the year 2005, if the population growth continues and if beds are not provided, there would not be enough beds for everyone, for example in Semporna, the ratio of people to beds would be 3089:1.

The availability of standards is important for planning as guidance in Sabah.

Table 4: Hospital beds

Evaluation

This is a process of testing alternatives to assist decision-makers to choose the most appropriate solution. The evaluation should be on a quantified basis. There are a number of techniques available for this purpose such as:

1. Check List of Criteria (involves qualitative statements about the extent to which broad objectives are met);
2. Goals Achievement Matrix (GAM) which involves quantified statements about achievement of specific objectives using measurable criteria;
3. Social Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) involves full cost/benefit analysis for all aspects of a plan; and
4. Planning Balance Sheet Analysis (PBSA) which involves cost/benefit analysis and identification of who loses and wins.

Due to limited time and resources available the GAM is most appropriate for a simple but effective means of displaying preferences. The GAM consists of Rating and Weighting.

GAM

Rating

The GAM rating is either +1, 0 or –1. If the alternative strategy has a strong positive impact (i.e. it is essential to the realisation of the evaluation criterion and attainment of its objective) it scores +1. If the strategy has a slight positive impact = 0. If the strategy does not impact upon the criteria it scores –1.

Weighting

Each criterion is scored and the total adds to 100. Scoring is based on the perceived importance of firstly, Settlements (e.g. 40), Natural Resources (40) & Infrastructure (20) and then the individual objective within the 3 major headings.

There is a need to generate the goals and objectives we want to evaluate. Both are technical and political processes. A goal in a broad sense is what we would like to aspire to or an ideal. The objectives are steps on the way to achieving these goals. Evaluation criteria are ways of measuring in numbers or in a quantifiable way whether or not we are achieving these objectives. Table 5 shows the sample goals statemen t

Table 6 shows the sample of GAM criteria sheet.

Table 5: Sample Goals Statement

Note that the above goals, objectives and evaluation criteria are for training purposes only. The Task Force should determine how appropriate they are for the use in the ICZM Spatial Plan. When generating Objectives they must have a commensurate Evaluation Criterion to be able to measure the performance of each Alternative strategy. Criteria must be quantifiable based on data collected so far (or which can be easily collected in the future).

Table 7 presents the alternative strategies of land required for urban development.

Table 6: Sample of GAM Criteria Sheet

Table 7: Alternative Strategies of Land required for Urban Development

GIS Presentation